Posted by Dennis Herrick on August 03, 2008 at 23:12:54:
In Reply to: Email to a friend of mine, Thought it might fit better here posted by Dennis Herrick on August 03, 2008 at 22:47:04:
We're growing, but it was births, not moves, that kept NH from shrinking
By MICHAEL COUSINEAU
New Hampshire Union Leader Staff
For the first time this decade, more people are moving out of New Hampshire than moving in -- a shift some blame on the twin problems of a housing slump and credit crunch facing the country.
In the year ending July 1, 2007, New Hampshire saw 2,389 more people leave for another state than settle here, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The state actually gained 4,007 people -- and stood at 1,315,828.
If not for 4,385 more births than deaths, New Hampshire would have lost population. The state's total was boosted by a net gain of 1,813 foreign immigrants. (The numbers don't balance because of national adjustments by the Census Bureau.)
Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire, said he expects to see a second straight year of more people moving to other parts of the United States than coming here from other states.
Johnson, however, predicted the state again will attract more residents than it loses "once the housing crisis ends."
But if it continues, the shift would have ramifications for the state and communities.
Much of that has to do with who typically moves here.
More than 78,000 people relocated from the greater Boston area to New Hampshire between 2001 and 2005 (versus 34,000 who moved in the other direction) -- many of them families with adults in their 30s and 40s, according to Johnson.
"Many of them would be near the peak of their wage earning potential," he said.
"Because New Hampshire depends on these flows of people in their 30s and 40s to New Hampshire, if the housing market is bogged down, it's people like these who wouldn't come," Johnson said. "They would just stay where they are."
Johnson's research quantified the potential dollars at stake.
Using Internal Revenue Service data, Johnson said households leaving New Hampshire between 2001 and 2005 had a combined income of roughly $5.31 billion while those moving in earned $6.73 billion. New Hampshire gained $1.42 billion in household earnings.
The county suffering the largest outmigration was in the state's southern tier.
Hillsborough County saw 2,086 more people move to another state than come there in the most recent year. But with a net gain of 1,134 foreign immigrants, the loss only was 952, according to census estimates.
"That's a lot," said Anita Josten, a research analyst with the New Hampshire Employment Security Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau.
"Rockingham and Hillsborough (residents) are the highest paid because they are the most competitive with Massachusetts businesses. They also have the most businesses there," Josten said. She attributed the drop to job losses that caused people to relocate to another state.
This decade has seen a steady decline in the number of people moving to New Hampshire from other states.
Statewide top and bottom
Communities with the largest population change from July 2002 through July 2007:
GAINERS
Hudson...... +1,375 (5.9%)
Bedford..... +1,335 (6.7%)
Windham..... +1,262 (10.6%)
Hooksett.... +1,246 (10 %)
Rochester... +1,244 (4.2%)
LOSERS
Nashua...... –660 (–0.8%)
Derry....... –455 (–1.3%)
Portsmouth.. –443 (–2.1%)
Berlin...... –386 (–3.7 %)
Plaistow.... –178 (–2.3%)
Between 2000 and 2001, New Hampshire netted around 12,100 people, excluding foreign immigrants. That dropped to 9,200 the following year, 3,100 by 2004 and 2,200 for the year ending July 1, 2006, before dropping into negative territory during the most recent year.
Despite a 0.3 percent increase in New Hampshire's overall population for the year ending July 2007, "we're growing faster than any other state in the region, but it's a race among turtles," Exeter demographer Peter Francese said.
New Hampshire's young adult population, age 25-34, remains smaller now than in 1990 but is growing again, according to Johnson. That group declined in number because fewer babies were born 25 to 35 years ago, and not because of a net outflow of young adults moving out of state, he said.
Francese sees it differently.
"You can't tell me that young adults are not leaving the state," Francese said.
"Housing is more affordable for young people in other states," he said. "I think the state should be quite concerned because I think it's losing working-age people."
Other census highlights showed that between 2002 and 2007:
-- Seven communities gained at least 1,000 people: Hudson, Bedford, Windham, Hooksett, Rochester, Newmarket and Milford. Manchester enjoyed the 10th best growth with 891 additional people.
-- The biggest population losers were Nashua, Derry, Portsmouth, Berlin and Plaistow.
-- Three out of 10 state residents now live in Hillsborough County (402,302).
Francese said he is seeing changes in migration patterns this decade.
"Now, more older people are moving here," said Francese, demographic forecaster for the New England Economic Partnership.
From 2000 to 2006, New Hampshire's 55-64 age group grew by 41 percent, 65-plus rose 10 percent and 45-54 increased 18 percent. But the 35-44 group dropped 6 percent and 25-34 lost 3 percent, according to Francese. Those 18-24 are up 16 percent.
Francese said short-term changes might have little effect on a community, but longer-term trends could cause community leaders to add fire stations or close schools.
Francese said many people believe towns gaining population will translate into more students in their schools. But he said that hasn't happened here. Every county but Coos gained population this decade and every county recorded declines in student enrollment, he said.
"The communities shun affordable workforce housing because they think it will increase the school population and increase their taxes," he said. "That's not the case, but that's their belief."
Salem Realtor Kathy Corey Fox, past president of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors, said people from Massachusetts continue to look at relocating in southern New Hampshire.
"It's hard to say that has slowed down," Fox said.
People settling in the Lakes Region -- older folks in many cases -- often aren't worrying about mortgage rates.
"They have the money," she said. "They're putting a hell of a chunk of change down."
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Shawn - Surely you must be a leftist if you disagree with Bob H. How dare you offer the truth?
Bob is one of the _normal_ americans, didn't he tell you that? Didn't you know that there is a correct way to think and a correct way to act?
Never mind that NH has the lowest taxes in the nation, didn't you know that we used to be 50th in taxes and all those lefties have moved up and now we are still 50th?
My God, the Founding Father's must be turning over in their graves. Here they were thinking that they were forming a country where all opinions would be respected and yet Bob tells us there is only one way to think.
I thought I was in America. Apparently I am in Russia.
- art, Portsmouth
It is not so much the credit crunch as the lack of Jobs !!! Maybe the writer forgot about Berlin, Groveton, Jac Pac, the thousand of unemployed.
- Tammy, Lancaster
1800 immigrants, ahhh! (JUST KIDDING)
Kind of stupid speculation, everyone is leaving die to the economy and credit. I guess I missed the article where the other 49 states avoided the credit crisis and their economies are fine. I guess Scott believes that crime is also endemic to NH only.
- Chip, Wilton
@ Joe V, Nashua...I was raised in Manchester, attended local schools there, lived in Lawrence for a number of years while working in Boston and, fortunately, moved to Raleigh in 1977 as a result of a corporate transfer. If you move here you will not be disappointed. Raleigh, along with the remainder of the Triangle area, is consistently included in just about every top 10 list published by various sources. People are relocating here not only from other states, but from all over the world. The cost of living, including property taxes, is reasonable and quality of life issues are outstanding. The school systems at all levels enjoy an outstanding reputation and the area is renowned for its high quality medical physicians and facilities. Trust me when I say this isn't the old "Tobacco Road" as some misinformed or outdated inviduals may still think it is. Come on down and enjoy terrific weather, vibrant shopping, clean cities and towns, personable and intelligent citizens, along with low taxes. And, by the way, you will be able to enjoy a smorgarsboard of high quality amatuer and professional sporting events, e.g., Tampa Bay AAA and Florida Marlins AA minor league baseball teams, NHL Carolina Hurricanes Hockey Team, Men's and Women's Carolina Railhawks Professional Soccer, a plethora of ACC college sports and a host of others. Oh, did I forget to mention we rarely ever have snow! Once you come and visit you'll wish you could stay. Funny thing is a lot of others felt the same and did stay helping to contribute to what makes this area of the country so great.
- Bob Sullivan, Raleigh, NC
I'll tell you why I'm leaving and moving back to the South ... it has to do with getting far, far away from an unbelievably high cost of living, poor community services (read: Yoo hoo Manchester! That's the "get a clue phone" ringing and it's for you...), winters that last six months, a perpetual escalation of violent crime, coupled with an inattentive police force that works harder to write parking tickets than it does cuffing thugs and drug dealers who do business openly on the streets, overcrowding, and people who are, in general, apathetic and frostier than the winters here.
I'll be pleased as punch to pay a higher air conditioning bill as I am to pay an astronomical heating bill. It will be cheaper to own, maintain and drive my car: saving big bucks and aggravation on the idiotic registration processes; lower insurance rates, cheaper fuel costs; and being able to drive back and forth to work without having to pay to use a major thruway, on roads that are deplorably maintained. Tax free New Hampshire, my aching b*tt! Property taxes alone are considerably lower in other areas of the country, not to mention the price of real estate in general. And let's not forget insurance, education, and health care.
Finally, I will be relieved of living in an area where people actually pride themselves on being cold, insensitive, unfriendly, unapproachable, even hostile. Step outside of New England and discover a world of people who understand that the words "Love thy neighbor" doesn't mean "have an illicit affair with your best friend's spouse."
Flame me if you will - I'll be another number in the statistics of people fleeing this state.
- Catherine, Manchester
Gene from Contoocock brings up a very sad point. Too many people in this State have no idea how the property tax system actually works, even though it is the largest source of local government revenue.
Gene, having your assessment changed because of locat1on (or your so called "view") does not produce any "new" dollars for government to spend, it only reallocates the portion of the tax pie you share with everyone else.
It is amazing that this misinformation on the property tax system is continually mouthed by Tommy Thompson, former Governor Meldrim Thompson's son. Governor Thompson ensured that for decades we would have the type of property tax system that his son now wants to have a significant portion of the family farm exempted from!
If you ever want to see a golden example of political hypocrisy, then all you have to do is read one of Tommy Thompson's self serving diatribes on the so called "view tax"!
- Thomas Thorpe, Portsmouth, NH
I started to read the article and knew that the "Mantra" would start up again and it did. As usual the article features a demographer that appears in papers all over New England. He repeats the same thing over and over that "It is the fault of planning boards that we don't have "zero lot size" developments which will make all housing cheaper". He then focuses on the fact that the state has to many old people in it and that is bad forgetting that many of the older people coming here have "made it" in life and have the money to spend.
The reality why many of the people are moving out of the state is that we fail to attract any businesses outside of retail. To many developers have a mindset that every town must have a "Life Style" mall that will induce everyone else in the state to drive to their locat1on. The end result is no one really works at attracting a business that draws just their employees and then they go home at the end of the day. Just like many areas in the US , now referred to as the rust belt , lost their heavy industry this state has now lost most of the final heavy industry which was centered around forestry products. In the 30's and 40's we lost our other core industry which was textiles to the deep south.
Many of the people that moved up here have found the quality of life here in New Hampshire is actually less than elsewhere given the amount of money you have to pay in property taxes because unless they both live and "Work" in this state they still have to pay income taxes to the other states. That includes those that live in other states and work here. With the spike in gas prices they have found it is cheaper to move back to Mass and other states because if the don't want to pay a sales tax they could drive here but if it costs to much for the gas then they will just buy in their state. .
Every person that I talk to that says they are moving to the south always say it is to get away from the high costs of winter and the snow. They talk wistfully about how much cheaper and better it is going to be. I always point out that my Godchildren live in Georgia and they average a 200 to 400 dollar a month air conditioning bill for about 9 months of the year. My cousin moved to the Carolinas after retiring and living at Hampton. She said it was great at Christmas time with no snow on the ground and you only needed a sweater but they she discovered spring , summer and fall with the air conditioning cranked on high for 7 to 9 months of the year. It was no longer that much cheaper.
The one thing they all note moving south is the property tax is a hell of a lot cheaper because the states all have a sales tax and an income tax. She said that they have all the "material stuff" they need so that low property tax improves their bottom line unlike the "New Hampshire Advantage" does.
- Don Armstrong, Henniker
Despite the downturn in the housing market, prices are still way too high up here. A quality acre of land in Hillsborough county is very difficult to find for less than $125,000 which brings the cost of the average new home to over $325,000. A similar home in the Raleigh, NC area is about $260,000-$280,000 which is a big reason I'm looking to move down south. The job market is better too. I think next year's numbers will show further decline and the high cost of heating will be a significant reason for the continued decline of NH's population.
- Joe V., Nashua
Leo has summed it up quite nicely.
Manufacturing is going to China - we are purchasing goods from China - our culture has changed with the Democrats in charge of everything.
I do not believe government creates wealth - but jobs are created by government staying out of the way.
Parents' Rights trampled - civil unions - yup, we are now just like Massachusetts.
With one exception: Teflon Governor Credit Card does wait to see when taxes go up over the border before he raises them here!
Few in Washington and Concord care about ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION and now many are victims ot it.
Just ask imprisoned Border Agents Compean and Ramos.
Niel Young
bnyoung@metrocast.net
- Niel Young, Laconia
I wonder, as a previous person wrote, how many births are related to immigrants who have come here as a 're-locate' destination as proposed by the federal government and how that translates to New Hampshires' economic status or burden possibly? Um-m-m-m!
- Tom T, Manchester, NH
Anecdotally, about 1/4 of the homes in Hopkinton are for sale. Blame it on the 30% increase in property taxes from our nice "view tax" scam. More money to toss away on necessary items like ever-more luxurious benefits for teachers, more free parking for HS students, etc.
- Gene Smith, Contoocook, NH
@Scott, Manchester - Wow strange. NH was just named the safest state in the country. If you think Manchester is unsafe, I have a few other cities you can try out.
@Leo, Canterbury - Population isn't down. Did you read the article?? "The state actually gained 4,007 people -- and stood at 1,315,828."
I don't think the UL is sticking by its own rule: "In general, comments that are in bad taste, poorly written or in capital letters will not be approved."
- Shawn, Milton
I am sure there are reasons to leave the state and the cost of housing likely is at the top of the list but I don't see crime being a big issue. Things aren't perfect here but where is this crime free state ? Maybe North Dakota but where else. Crime may be going up some but NH is still as good a place as many and better than most.
- Joe, Weare
This story is confusing. Older people coming in? Well are they leftists or normal americans? I'd like some clarification as to the political consequences of who's moving into the state.
Can anybody clarify this?
It is my hope that - with the real estate crisis - we will see more leftists abandoning the state and moving back down into Taxachusetts and other states. Particularly those that work in the Boston area.
And good riddance to them too if they are leaving. They leave nothing but high taxes, nanny state oppression and giant bureacracies in their wake. Wherever they go they ruin the quality of life and turn once livable states into socialist hellholes that people can't wait to escape from.
- Bob Hoskins, Derry
NH - why not rename it New Massachusetts? Population down, budget and taxes way up. That's what happens when the loony left takes over. The outward migration will pick up steam when the credit crunch is over.
- Leo, Canterbury
There are several factors in why people are leaving the state and one major factor that was omitted is crime. The UL is full of stories on home invasions, bank robberies, beatings, muggings and other forms of violence.
Everyday in reader comments, people are blogging on moving out of the state because of the violence. Heck, The UL online even has it's own section for "crime".
The credit crunch and housing slump are two factors, but a 3rd major factor(as proven by UL readers) is crime.
This paragraph in the article is probably the most significant:
"Hillsborough County saw 2,086 more people move to another state than come here in the most recent year. But with a net gain of 1,134 foreign immigrants, the loss only was 952, according to census estimates.
I also wonder how many of the 1,134 foreign immigrants are taking the jobs of lifelong citizens or are collecting some form of city handouts?
Manchester used to be call ManchVega$ and the other day someone blogged and referred to Manchester as Manchganistan. Sad, but so very true.
- Scott, Manchester